Archive for February, 2011
Sovereign Debt Risk Returning to EU?
After months of worry over the possibility that Greece could default on its sovereign debt, the change in government in Ireland is likely to put that issue back on the front burner. Not Ireland’s debt, but Greece’s. And Portugal’s and maybe Spain’s and Belgium’s too. The seems to be an apparent determination of Ireland’s newly-elected [...]
The Dollar Index: More Flavors To Choose From
If you trade in any security that’s designed to track the US Dollar Index, you’ve probably noticed how heavily this index is weighted in just one currency – the euro, which accounts for 57.6% of the index. The US Dollar Index (also known as “the DXY”) is kind of an ancient relic – a lot [...]
The Irish Elections and the Euro
The recent elections in Ireland have turned out pretty much as expected. The ruling party, Fianna Fáil, has been tossed out in favor of a coalition between Fine Gael and the Irish Labour party. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are politically to the right of center while Labour is left of center, but Fianna Fáil bears the [...]
US Dollar Hit by Oil Price Spike
Crude oil prices above $103/barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and above $117/barrel for North Sea Brent have sent currency traders to the relatively safer havens of the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. And while crude prices have moderated somewhat since hitting those peaks, fears of a stalled economic recovery in the US have [...]
Charting the VIX: Does Technical Analysis Work?
You can view a chart of the VIX just as you can for any stock. Just enter the symbol, add some moving averages, maybe even some Bollinger Bands and RSI indicators and you’re on your way. In fact, here’s a chart of the VIX going back about six months (as of February 23) with a [...]
Gold Vs. Gold Miners: Support And Resistance
After reviewing how Freeport McMoran has been trading against copper, I thought I’d take a similar look at how a few of the gold mining stocks have been trading against gold. Back in November, I created a few charts showing how a group of gold miners were trading at various prices for gold. For example, [...]
China Juggles Domestic Economy & Currency Appreciation
China’s efforts to cool off its sizzling economy may have finally taken hold. The country’s manufacturing index fell in February from a previous reading of 54.5 to 51.5 — still growing, only not as fast. Annual growth in the economy is likewise expected to cool, from an average of 9.5% over the past 10 years [...]
Apple TV: Catalyst For Growth Or “Hobby” Forever?
The other night I had this strange dream that Apple (AAPL) opened up a chain of gas stations. People were waiting for hours in long lines for the privilege of paying a couple of dollars more per gallon because using their new “gasoline pump interface” was such an amazing experience. I have no idea what [...]
Middle East Conflicts Roil Forex, Oil Markets
The relatively peaceful resolution to the popular uprising in Egypt does not appear to be playing out in other countries in North Africa and the Middle East. The disturbances in Libya, Bahrain, and Yemen have so far resulted in more than 200 deaths, and there is no sign that the conflicts will cool off soon. [...]
UK Rate Hike Expected Soon
Expectations that the Bank of England will raise its interest rate by 25 basis points, to 0.75%, during the second quarter of 2011 have risen on a report in the Financial Times that a third member of the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee now supports the rise. Hopes for a rate hike were further pumped up [...]
